Hi guys,
This is a quick reminder of the exercise you're preparing for tomorrow's class.
On Tuesday we talked about the fact that society is changing must faster now than it once did.
Another way of speaking about this accelerating change process is to note, as we did in class, that novelties (as opposed to cycles or continuities) comprise a larger part of the "landscape of change" than in earlier eras. To clarify this using the landscape of change metaphor, as time goes by and we look around us as our world, those elements that seem to have always been there, we could call continuities (arguably, some features of "human nature" might be counted here). Those that we see regularly cropping up ("I've seen that before!") we could call cycles (such as swings between boom and bust in the economy, freedom and order in politics, or the regular procession of the seasons). The things we have not encountered before ("What the hell is that?") can be labelled novelties (for instance, to preliterate societies, writing was a novelty; to preindustrial culture, the steam engine came as a novelty).
All novelties have to start somewhere.
They begin very small. Then, as they get more attention, become more common, or more widely used, they reach a sort of saturation point. (Later on, they might drop off as other novelties enter the picture and replace them.)
One of the techniques of futures thinking is to try to identify novelties in their earliest stages (things at the left-hand end of the curve shown below, which depicts one way of evaluating the rise and fall of new innovations, technologies, trends, and so on).
This is a quick reminder of the exercise you're preparing for tomorrow's class.
On Tuesday we talked about the fact that society is changing must faster now than it once did.
Another way of speaking about this accelerating change process is to note, as we did in class, that novelties (as opposed to cycles or continuities) comprise a larger part of the "landscape of change" than in earlier eras. To clarify this using the landscape of change metaphor, as time goes by and we look around us as our world, those elements that seem to have always been there, we could call continuities (arguably, some features of "human nature" might be counted here). Those that we see regularly cropping up ("I've seen that before!") we could call cycles (such as swings between boom and bust in the economy, freedom and order in politics, or the regular procession of the seasons). The things we have not encountered before ("What the hell is that?") can be labelled novelties (for instance, to preliterate societies, writing was a novelty; to preindustrial culture, the steam engine came as a novelty).
All novelties have to start somewhere.
They begin very small. Then, as they get more attention, become more common, or more widely used, they reach a sort of saturation point. (Later on, they might drop off as other novelties enter the picture and replace them.)
One of the techniques of futures thinking is to try to identify novelties in their earliest stages (things at the left-hand end of the curve shown below, which depicts one way of evaluating the rise and fall of new innovations, technologies, trends, and so on).
The S-curve used in Emerging Issue AnalysisWildman & Inayatullah Image from metafuture.org
Your job is to try to identify and tell the class (very briefly -- less than a minute) about an Emerging Issue you've found which you think has potential to grow into a fully blown trend, and which -- if it did -- could be quite shocking or disruptive. And the challenge is to find something that no one else in the class has heard of. Tell us where it's starting, how you found it, and why you think it could be important.
Remember, if it's been in the mainstream media we've probably already heard of it (i.e., it's no longer an emerging issue -- it's a full-on phenomenon!) so you might try fringe communities, e.g., subcultures of sport, art, fashion, or thought. Maybe you're involved in one that could give you some ideas.
If you can't do it in time for this class, that's okay -- we'll be touching on this next Tuesday also.
Cheers,
Stuart
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